Welcome to my agriculture page. I will cover my farming operation and how weather affects it. I will also comment special events that occur in our lives that may not be associated with my farming operation. Check it out any time.
January 1, HAPPY NEW YEAR!
The cold air mass continues. Last night we got down to -6, and that was without any snow cover! Todays high was around 15. Slowly moderating temps are due to gradually boost temps above freezing towards the weekend. There is some chance for snow around Sunday/Sunday night. The current weather pattern is back to the old PNA pattern again. (Northwest upper flow and not as cold as last week---trough in the eastern US. Ridge over the western US. coast to inter-mountain west, trough off the west coast) The MJO has enhanced and moved into the Indian ocean. This will change our US. pattern in a week to 10/14 days. (The first inkling would be the Sunday low pressure trough to move through the plains.) We'll see what type of pattern we get from this MJO change but it lines up with some forecasters long range thinking. Models reaching into the first of next week are typically all over the place (as usual). I know that it's so dry it will take a whallop from a storm to start to chip into the dryness. On the farm, it takes more hay for the cattle and the pond ice is so thick I can drive out on the ice without breaking through. We're burning a lot of wood for heating the houses but I built up the wood pile big before the cold snap began. Now, I think 25 degrees would be warm.
Jan. 6, quick update.
I've been snowed by Dr. appts. and other requirements in Salina. Need to talk about future weather for a second. Finally, an upper low comes through the southwest US. and maintains it's strength. Most models track this low right over Kansas (which isn't a big precip maker for us) but the trend is for a slightly more southern track, (a big snow maker for us). The event is still supposed to hit Wed. night/Thurs. Plenty of time to change tracks. The intensity of this storm is pretty sure. Just where it tracks can and will change some. For sure we'll get wind from this storm. Big wind! We can get thunderstorms to clear weather to a blizzard depending on the storm track. Keep tuned to the weather next week.
January 9, a storm to move through.
We've had glorious weather Monday, today and tomorrow. High temps are in the 50s to 60s. That changes Thursday with falling temps. all day. Dangerous wind chills and very low actual temps. go clear through at least mid week next week. As for precip., the models de amplify the low pressure circulation to just a wave as it passes over Kansas. Models vary as to where the most precip falls. I think the best chance for accumulation of rain and snow still stays along and north of I-70. Other waves pass over Kansas with light accumulations this weekend and early next week. At least we are getting "some" moisture. This is probably due to the MJO I've talked about. It is very robust and is fighting with the La- Nina base state. With out La-Nina we would get more generous precip from the MJO I think but we'll take what we can get. As for other things, My recent blood test has raised my "Meld" score upward where I will be back on the call list for a new liver. I just need to Meld higher to have a better recipient chance. Due to this, my Salina Dr. does not want to try a more active drug control for my Kron's disease that I've been battling. We've been working the Drs. treating Grandma and Thursday she goes to the hospital for more inclusive tests. Tomorrow we turn in our farm records for tax purposes. So, most of my time is spent in Salina doing required things. This wont end until next week unless other things turn up. Remember. Be prepared for dangerous wind chills and cold temps Thursday through the next week. We'll have to see how strong our Wed night storm stays to get a real handle on precipitation totals.
Jan. 13, cold, a little snow.
We had around 2" of snow with lots of wind last Thursday. Highs and lows continue below freezing until tomorrow (Sunday) when we get a quick warm up. Then, It's back to fridged temps. till Thursday. A couple of opportunities for light snow will be on the platter between now and Thursday. Of more interest is a (major?) storm system shown for the first time today on the American model for next weekend. As usual, models look wild a week out, then tend to moderate greatly before day seven arrives. Anyway, the first look for Kansas, seven days out, shows a precip. bulls eye over central Kansas. Also, the Dodge City forecaster gave some lip service to this potential storm today. I'll keep watching all of this and see what changes come about as next weekend approaches.
The sand mixing with snow shows how dry it is and how little snow we've received.
I've been snowed the last few days. Sunday, Grandma tripped in church and cracked her pelvis. Today, we heard from her Dr. no surgery was required but a lengthy stay in the hospital/rehab before she can live at home. At the same time, Liz caught the influenza bug and was down during the same time. So, I'm doing double duty somewhat for two right now.
Jan 19, a quick word about the weather.
Seems like the storm moving in is looking a little bit stronger. Forecasters are a little unsure how much snow will fall due to temps. That MIGHT mean more rain/drizzle on the south end. About the last 3 storm systems to move through Kansas have traveled right through the center of the state. To get good rains/snow for central Kansas, one needs the low center to travel east to west through northern Oklahoma. In the spring time, you can get isolated heavy rains here when the upper low is in Nebraska but the jackpot storm is the north Ok. storm. Models tonight show another storm traversing Kansas in a week so keep hoping for a more southern track. PS. A storm can be too far south also (northern Texas southern OK.) and miss us for precip. For now, with the current storm, people living close and north of highway 24 have the best chance for meaningful precip. although models show a dip in the precip through Concordia almost down to Salina. We'll see how this plays out.
Jan 25, big warmup.
The high temp today was just below 70 with a stout southerly wind. It was a Red Flag day but our area had no wildfires. The ice has just about melted on the ponds and the snow/rain we got on Monday has all evaporated. We took advantage of the warmness and worked my two pastures (around 90 pairs) of fall born pairs. We'll do Grandma's fall pairs Saturday. Extra time has been spent with Grandma as she developed a blood clot in her leg while starting rehab on her cracked pelvis. As for weather, after looking at several things in the week to 2 week future, It looks like a cool down is in store. The precip. looks to be in the normal to just above normal area for this time of the year. Seems to me as dry as it is, the preciup will struggle as it has the last several months. Sooner or later though, we will get bulls eyed by a storm that has the right strength, the right moisture load, the right path, and the right speed to hit the jackpot of precip we need so badly. This seems to happen on a storm that at first, doesn't look so good, "hiccups", then produces. If the pattern continues, then the precip door remains open and good moisture falls. Hope it happens soon.
Feb. 3, weather at a glance.
Lately the weather pattern has fallen into it's same old theme. A Hudson bay low pinwheeling around in Canada and a ridge off/along the west coast of the USA. These two highlighters give us strong northwest winds aloft which passes cold fronts through every 2 to 3 days and will put a cooling trend for Kansas and basically dry. This pattern is maintained by a base state La Nina with the MJO at strong levels. The MJO has to move to a more favorable place to change this but the dryness seems to persist well into Feb. On the farm, we will start calving heifers soon then our older cows around the first of March.
Feb. 12, warm for a few days.
I caught the stomach flu and now am just getting over it. Also I've been busy with Grandma as she transitions from rehab in Salina back to her home. In between, Jeremy and I have done some cattle moving. The weather has been cold and mostly dry---just a few places in the state has received more than 2" of snow. We got to around 50 degrees last Wed. then struggled to best 30 for a few days (lows in the low teens to single digits). The forecast is for increasing temps till Thursday when we go below normal a couple of days. The GFS model shows a large trough moving into the southwest US. This may portend a pattern change. Even now the ridge around the west coast has moved out into the Pacific. The Hudson bay low moves a little more east. Some forecasters are picking up on this but it is still 7-8 days out. Supporting this is the CPC 6-10 day outlook and the 8-14 day outlook. Both outlooks show cooler than average with precip. increasing to above normal at the 8-14 outlook. The MJO is still strong but decreasing in intensity. So---maybe by the end of the month Kansas could start getting beneficial precip. We shall see.